Social Media Predicts Portugal's Win at Euro 2016®


Portugal have been crowned champions of European football, and social media predicted their unlikely win. Socialbakers tracked fan activity across social in #Social Euro 2016®, correctly predicting the winner of the last 12 matches - including the championship.

For the last month, Europeans have watched excitedly as their nations’ football stars competed for the coveted championship. Now that Portugal have won in an epic match with France, we look back at what happened as social media fever swept the continent.

Highlights:

  • In playoff matches, the #Social Euro 2016® favorite also won on the pitch 80% of the time
  • Pre-match social media activity correctly predicted the outcome of the last 12 matches of the tournament!
  • Daily fan activity peaked at 2 million cheers, or mentions of the team's hashtags, during the group stages on June 16th 
  • The two finalists were also the most-cheered teams - fans cheered them on more than 7.5 million times across social media

The Social Results

Before each match, #Social Euro 2016
® 
recorded Twitter mentions of each team's hashtags. As matches got closer to kick-off, activity picked up.

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While the level of support each team receives on social media does not completely predict match results, they do suggest a traceable correlation. Having more fan support, as reflected across social media, indicates greater chances of victory.

Overall, the tournament’s big winners in terms of hashtag mentions on social media were its biggest names: five of the tournament’s 10 global sponsors, and four of its best teams (and England, whose shocking upset at the hands of tiny Iceland became one of the biggest stories of the month).

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In our tournament bracket, where we used mentions before kick-off to predict who would win the actual match, our formula grew increasingly likely to predict the winner as the tournament went on. In the group stages, social media correctly predicted an awesome 90% of matches, excluding draws. After that, #Social Euro 2016® correctly predicted 80% of the matches, including ending the tournament on a 12-match winning streak. 

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More to Come!

We will be recording fan excitement across social media for many more major events in the future. Stay updated on fan activity across social on the Socialbakers blog.


EURO 2016 is a registered trademark of Union des Associations Européennes de Football (UEFA).
All data above are from Socialbakers social media analytics and management solutions.

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